Friday, December 03, 2004

Reviewing Election Theory...One Month Out

I was pondering a few things before the elction, but I wanted to see how they played out before I shared them. We're now a month out, so let's review.

The first is that the Old Media would be eclipsed by the New Media. Sure enough, Fox News scored higher ratings than any news organization - a news first. Bloggers brought down the fraudulent Dan Rather. Internet campaigning was massive - on both sides of the isle.

Second, California is no longer the jewel in the electoral crown. The shine is gone. The tarnish is now a stain. For two elections in a row, the Golden State has been on the losing end of presidential politics. Karl Rove has shown that a candidate can win comfortably without courting the loonies on the left coast.

Third, the myth of the country being dividied 50-50 has been debunked. An editor for Newsweek stated that liberal media bias will give Kerry an extra 15% on election day. Can you imagine how much more Bush would have destroyed Kerry if the Old Media decided to become non-partisan? 75% of pre-election Bush stories were negative. Only 25% of Kerry stories were negative.

Forth, debates will no longer be simply scored, but divided between who won for style and who won for substance. This was first evident in the famous Nixon-Kennedy debate, but it has become a mainstay. All three debates had liberal commentators breathlessly reporting how good Kerry looked. When people were quizzed over substance, Bush trounced Kerry - every time.

Fifth, large turnout doesn't favor a particular party. How many times did the pundits say that large turnout was bad news for Bush? It turns out that turnout efforts for both sides were massive. And Bush's grassroots teams simply turned out more people to the polls.

Finally, media bias has caused more division that politicians ever could. Ever hear a friend or co-worker say, "all politicians are the same"? Well, that saying wasn't that prevolent this year. The media offered us Saint Kerry or George "Spawn of Satan" Bush. And a lot of people bought it. Despite the roaring economy (which the Old Media never mentioned) and the tremendous successes in the War on Terror (again, never mentioned by the OM), there were a lot of people who actually thought the world would break down into chaos if Bush were around one more day. Rediculous to think that one man has that much power.

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